"The Irish party system appears to be in flux at present, but what remains unclear is whether this is a temporary situation or a a “new normal”.” My opinion is that what we experienced in the last election will be the “new normal” and that the days of the traditional two-and-a-half party system are well and truly over. Say no to plagiarism. Get a tailor-made essay on “Why Violent Video Games Should Not Be Banned”? Get the original essay HistoryUntil very recent times, the Irish political system has had a traditional two-and-a-half party system. This was made up of Fianna Fail (created in 1926), Fine Gael (created in 1933 after a merger between Cumann na nGaedheal, the National Center Party and the National Guard) and the Labor Party (created in 1912). These three parties combined the vote has exceeded 90% in the majority of general elections since the creation of the state. With Fianna Fail and Fine Gael averaging over 70% together. There is an argument that Labour, which had its worst election result in 2016, will bounce back, but it may need a few more elections to do so. Labor benefits from a brand and party structure that some of the smaller parties could only wish for. If the Social Democrats don't make headway in the next general election, you could see a merger with Labor if they both want to increase their influence in Irish politics. These two center-left parties reportedly have very similar ideologies, so over time they could iron out their differences. As for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, both centre-right parties, I am confident that the decline in overall support we have seen in recent times will not be reversed. Although support for these parties will fluctuate over the course of any given election, I cannot see a situation where combined support for Fianna Fail and Fine Gael will reach anywhere near 70% support again. There are many reasons for my theory, which I will discuss in more detail below. People's loyalty to political parties is not as strong as it was historically. For example, Fianna Fail consistently received between 39% and just over 50% in all general elections between 1932 and 2011. This support remained stable and showed that even in difficult times for the party and the country , he still retained a large number of votes. of the main voters. The same could also be said, to a lesser extent, for Fine Gael, where support has consistently been between 20% and 39% in every Dail election. Voter loyalty to political parties has been studied (Michael Walsh, Politics in the RoI, chapter 6). A key factor was the socio-psychological reasons why voters remain loyal to the same political party. This is where a person typically inherits a party from their family members. They develop a strong bond with a particular party from a young age and the political party becomes deeply ingrained in their psyche. This is particularly relevant to Fianna Fail and is more prevalent in rural than urban areas. However, I believe that the importance of having a strong family bond is diminishing and that this importance has not been improved by the continued movement of internal migration. The percentage of the population living in rural areas fell from 68.2% in 1926 to 37.5% in 2016 (CSO census [1]). Irish attitudes became more liberal. We saw this initially with the divorce referendum in 1995 and more recently with the same-sex marriage referendum. THEcountry is expected to hold several referendums in the coming years, notably on the 8th Amendment. There would be strong resistance among members of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael to any liberalization of state laws, but the majority of the public would hold more liberal views, particularly on abortion (IFPA Abortion in Ireland, 2017 [2]). .Another factor (Politics in the RoI Chapter 6, Table 6.4) shows voters' choice according to Church practice in 2007. 84% of Catholic voters who attend church every week voted for Fianna Fail. or Fine Gael. Compared to 63% for non-Catholic or irregular Catholic voters. In 1926, the percentage of Catholics in the state stood at 92.6% and rose to 94.9% in 1961. However, this figure has declined significantly since then and stood at 78.3% in 2016 (CSO census [3]). This trend is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. This would have implications for the two main parties whose voters are overwhelmingly Catholic (although Fine Gael would be supported by large numbers of citizens from traditional Protestant faiths, Church of Ireland, Presbyterian and Methodist). The average age of people belonging to these long-established religions (in Ireland) is much higher than that of people with no religion or other non-traditional religions within the state (CSO census [4]). In theory, as the number of Catholics declines within the state, this should lead voters to strongly consider other parties. Another area to consider is the number of migrants arriving in Ireland in recent times. The number of Irish residents claiming to be non-Irish or born outside the country has now reached almost 20% of the population (Census 2016 [5] & [6]). While voter registration is low for non-Irish nationals (ERSI 2016 [7]). There is no guarantee that this figure will remain low. More than 121,100 people applied for Irish citizenship through naturalization between 2005 and 2015 (ERSI 2016 [8]). Although there does not appear to be any data on the voting intentions of recent immigrants or their nationality, this is a considerable number of potential voters who would be relatively new to Irish politics. There is no reason to believe that this cohort of people would favor any of the traditional parties over the various other parties. The name Fianna Fail or Fine Gael would be unfamiliar to most “new Irish”. Although some may link themselves to the Green Party or the Labor Party due to name recognition, these two parties have sister parties in other countries. Other people might come from countries where the left-wing vote is traditionally strong. Parties like Fianna Fail and Fine Gael will have to spend a lot of time and effort convincing this cohort to vote for them, something they may take for granted with those of white Irish descent. Across Europe, times of one-party government are less rare. Almost all EU countries are led by coalition governments, with a few others led by minority governments with the support of independents or small parties, such as Ireland and the United Kingdom. This strengthens the influence of small parties on the electorate. Small parties should be able to convince potential voters that they could play an important role in forming the next government. For most of the last century this was not the case in Ireland. For example, if you didn't want Fine Gael in government, your only other alternative was to vote Fianna Fail. For example, a vote for Labor was the same as voting for Fine Gael to be the.