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  • Essay / Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain Networks - 1163

    The goal of supply chain management is to provide a high-velocity flow of relevant, high-quality information that will enable suppliers to deliver an uninterrupted and precisely timed flow of materials to customers. However, unanticipated fluctuations in demand, including those caused by stock-outs, in the supply chain execution process create distortions that can wreak havoc throughout the supply chain. There are many causes, often in combination, that cause these supply chain distortions and trigger the so-called bullwhip effect. Although the devil is usually buried in the details, as is the case here, the most common general drivers of these distortions are: Demand distortions include: chain, which often results in enormous disruptions and costly on the supplier side. Often, these swings in demand will trigger a “mad rush” in the manufacturing sector, with the need to acquire and ramp up more raw materials and reschedule production. The “bullwhip effect” has in the past been accepted as normal and, in fact, considered a problem. inevitable part of the cycle from order to delivery. Yet the negative effect on business performance often results in excess inventory, quality issues, higher raw material costs, overtime expenses, and shipping costs. In the worst case, customer service decreases, delivery times lengthen, sales are lost, costs increase and capacity is adjusted. An important part of making a smooth supply chain work is to mitigate and preferably eliminate the “bullwhip effect”. Lee et al. (1997) examined four possible causes of the bullwhip effect: updating demand forecasts, order consolidation, price fluctuation, and rationing and shortages. The updated demand forecast suggests that demand amplification is occurring due to safety stock and long delivery times. As orders are forecasted and passed through the supply chain, safety stocks build, resulting in the bullwhip effect. Planning for material requirements or transportation economics requires companies to order goods at certain times. This periodic clustering causes increases in demand in a given period, followed by periods with no or few orders, and other periods with huge demands. Price fluctuation, which usually results from a discount or promotion, also distorts purchasing habits and creates greater demand variability and demand irregularity. Finally, when demand far exceeds supply, manufacturers often ration products to their customers based on what they order. Aware of this rationing policy, customers place larger orders more frequently than they actually need in the hope of getting more products..